Birding in Hurricane Chris and a Comparison to Other Storms

As of now there is a very good chance that hurricane Chris will cross the south east coast of Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula, some time on Thursday. It is expected that the storm will have dissipated into a tropical storm or even a post-tropical depression by the time is makes landfall.

As I said in a previous blog, this is an unusual storm, in that it formed just off the Carolinas, remained stationary for several days and then began to track NE and pick up strength. That's in contrast to most storms, which have their origins off the African coast or in the Gulf of Mexico. But what does this mean for birding? To answer that lets first take a look at some previous storms including the "perfect birding storm", Hurricane Helene of 1958 and Hurricane Wilma of 2005.

This is not a topic I take lightly. Hurricanes cause enormous damage and disrupt bird populations. However, for birders they can be very exciting because they have the potential to displace birds over vast distances. These storms have been happening since time immemorial and will continue to occur. They will continue to displace birds. My thoughts are if the birds are coming anyway, we might as well enjoy them.

It has been a long time since Newfoundland has seen a hurricane borne fallout of birds. Well, that's not entirely true. In late October of 2005 the remnants of Hurricane Wilma combined with the passage of a strong low pressure system, and sent unseasonable numbers of Chimney Swifts, Swallows, Terns and Yellow-billed Cuckoos all over Atlantic Canada. It was perhaps the single largest displacement of hurricane driven birds ever!! Unfortunately, we blew it big time!!! Newfoundland birders failed to organize and there was no concerted effort to look for storm driven strays beyond the Avalon Peninsula. There were a bunch of good birds found on the eastern edge of the Avalon including hundreds of Chimney Swifts (rare in Newfoundland), Gull-billed Tern, Sandwich Tern and a likely Royal tern that slipped through my fingers tips before I clinch the id!



A number of factors combined to make this an extraordinary event. First of all the storm formed very quickly and intensified to one of the strongest hurricanes on record. I believe it had the lowest central pressure of any hurricane ever! It formed during a time (mid October) and in an area (Gulf of Mexico)where huge numbers of birds were migrating at the time. Even though the storm fizzled out and never officially made land fall in Newfoundland it combined with an intense low pressure system that allowed it to entrain birds until they finally escaped near the coast of Atlantic Canada.

To give you an idea of the significance of the movement of Chimney Swifts. Prior to Wilma I had seen 8 Chimney Swifts in Newfoundland in 10 years. On a singe day after Wilma, I saw over 150! Anyway, enough talk of that. I've been trying to suppress the memories of how bad we ( birders) botched this storm.

So moving on. Aside from Wilma you have to go back 53 years to September of 1958, when Hurricane Helene rained storm driven strays all over Western Newfoundland.The most notable species involved in this event were Laughing Gulls ( many hundreds) and Black Skimmers ( 10's). I don't think we have any records of Black Skimmer since.

Track showing the path of Hurricane Helene of 1958. Of note is this storms strength and the fact that it skirted the coast of the US in a bird rich area and then made landfall in Newfoundland without crossing land anywhere else.

This exactly the type of hurricane we need to bring in exotic terns and seabirds. Most important is the storms track over Tern rich Cape Hatteras, it's strength and the speed at which the storm was moving. Couple this with the fact that the storm managed to miss the rest of the eastern seaboard and hit Burgeo, Newfoundland directly as a H1 hurricane. It was the perfect storm for a wreck of exotic sea birds!! The thing is there weren't many people that were interested in looking for vagrant birds back in the 1950's in Newfoundland. Given what was found, one can only imagine what was missed! Given that even a single Laughing Gulls is notable in Newfoundland, flocks such as the one pictured below are truly incredible!




A photo the day after the passage on Hurricane Helene. Taken from Burgeo Sept 29th 1958. This photo was borrowed from a great paper written by legendary Newfoundland Ornithologist, Les Tuck. it can be viewed here in its entirety. (http://elibrary.unm.edu/sora/JFO/v039n03/p0200-p0208.pdf)


Since 1958 we have had a few other storms that have gotten us excited, but none have produced a significant fall out of hurricane birds. When we do get direct or near direct hits from Hurricanes they are often storms that have been well out to sea for the duration of their existence, never getting close enough to the Tern rich areas from Florida to Cape Cod. These storms often form near the Cape Verde Islands in Africa, then track west, north of the Lesser Antilles. They then start to intensify into hurricanes as they enter the warmer water, but often encounter strong steering currents from low pressure systems sweeping out from the eastern US. This results in the storms re-curving away from the US coast and towards Bermuda, sometimes tracking on to hit Newfoundland, but more often missing us entirely.

Its still worth birding these storms however,since they have brought us a few good birds. We have had a couple of Least Terns and a White-tailed Tropicbird that have been found after the passage of such storms. Other highly pelagic species such as Sooty and Bridled Tern may also be possible after such storms. Below are some examples of such storms from the last few years.


Hurricane Florence of 2006,classic Cape Verde storm that re curved around Bermuda and was extra-tropical when it passed off the Avalon Peninsula on September 12th. A Least Tern and a dead White-tailed Tropicbird were found after this storm.


This much anticipated late August storm (Hurricane Bill) failed to produce anything too exotic, but we did find a rare Least Tern at Grand Bank, Burin Peninsula and there was a noticeable influx of shorebirds into the area.


This utterly useless storm (Hurricane Igor) powered into the Avalon Peninsula on the morning of September 21st. It's winds(that peaked at 173 km/hr) left a path of destruction in its wake and failed to bring a single vagrant sea bird. This is exactly the kind of storm we don't want. If we're going to get battered we should at least get a few avian rewards as compensation!

So now that we've reviewed some previous storms, what can we expect from Hurricane Chris. If the past is any indication, the answer is probably not that much. However, this storm does differ from those discussed above in a couple of ways, though it's hard to say what impact these differences may have on potential birding.

 Potential track of Hurricane Chris as of July 1

Unlike most Atlantic hurricanes this storm had its genesis off the coast of south Carolina, not that far from Cape Hatteras and also not that far from the continental shelf edge. This is notable because the area is quite bird rich with a number of species of breeding Terns and the waters not far offshore near the continental shelf edge are known for hosting a large number of seabird in both density and diversity. The question is was this storm strong enough and organized enough to trap any birds and carry them north?

The current track is somewhat tantalizing because as of now the storm is predicted to cross Newfoundland on the eastern edge of the Avalon Peninsula an area well known to birders. There are several sheltered harbours and tern colonies that could possibly attract and host a weary southern Tern trying to escape the fierce winds. As of now it's not certain what time the storm will make it to Newfoundland, but when it does, what's the best way to bird this storm?

Tips for Birding Hurricane Chris

The best way to bird this storm depends on it's final track and the time of the day it impacts eastern Newfoundland. Assuming the track holds, there will be strong S or SE winds in advance of the storm as it moves closer to Newfoundland. That means we might see pelagic birds, such as Shearwaters and Jaegers pushed into south facing headlands and sheltered harbours. Somewhere like Biscay Bay could be interesting as the storm approaches. Things will also depend on the conditions at the time. It's quite possible there will be driving and rain and thick fog, which could make birding outside a vehicle impossible, so areas that allow you to view from inside your car might be especially appealing.

If the storm doesn't pass until into the evening, then there are other options available. As the storm passes, it will likely generate N or NW 'wrap around' winds in it's wake. This may cause a build up of birds in  North facing areas on the Avalon, such as Holyrood harbour, which is a well known spot for it's concentrations of pelagic species during storms.

My personal plan is to be somewhere on the SE coast when the storm makes landfall, if it does so early in the day. If the storm doesn't pass until the evening or into the night, then I will be waking up early the following morning and will be checking harbours all along the eastern coast of the Avalon down to Cape Race and west to Biscay Bay and Trepassey for any potential vagrant species.

Whatever you decide to do, be safe. We could see heavy rain fall during the storm and driving conditions could get pretty bad. No rarity is worth your life! Have fun and safe birding, I'll follow up on my birding during Hurricane Chris this weekend.

Hurricane Birding Season to Open Next Week?!

I was just perusing the weather maps for the Eastern Atlantic like I do on a regular basis and found there is strong potential for a Tropical Storm to impact southern Newfoundland next week! Now of course, this subject it not to be taken lightly, major storms can cause property damage and threaten peoples lives. However, they are also a cause of excitement for birders, since birds can be displaced long distances in such storms and many normally pelagic species can also be pushed close to land, often in sheltered coves. You may want to have a look a previous discussion I had about hurricane birding in Newfoundland- available here ( Review of NL Hurricanes and birding)

Below is the a snapshot of the storm in question that may develop into Tropical Storm Chris in a couple days.


This is a bit of an unusual storm. Most Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms develop off the coast of Africa or in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This storm is different in that it's forming off the coast of the Carolinas and is expected to sit there for a bit, then start to move NE strengthening to a topical storm, then a category 1 hurricane, before it's expected to make landfall in SE Newfoundland as a topical storm or tropical depression.

Track for Tropical Disturbance 3, soon to become Tropical Storm Chris

It's hard to say what the birding potential of a storm with a track such as this is. The storms that have the most potential to bring birds to Newfoundland are the ones that are already strong when they skirt the Cape Hatteras. This storm is forming in a fairly bird rich area and right in the middle of the breeding season as well. This is also different, since most tropical storms we get arrive in August-October, when most southern terns and Gulls would have already finished breeding. I wonder if this storm holds potential to displace recently fledged birds or parents they may be out to sea feeding.

The vast majority of the time these storms turn out to be total duds from a birding perspective, though the potential is always there and the anticipation and pondering is half the fun. If this track played out exactly as shown we'd be hoping to have a chance to see southern Tern species such as Sooty Tern, Bridled Tern, Royal Tern, Sandwich Tern, Least Tern and Black Skimmer. There would probably also be potential for Laughing Gulls. Then there is absolute dream of possibly seeing a rare petrel from the south such as Audubons, Black-capped or Feas. Maybe even something equally exotic for Newfoundland waters such a Red-billed or White-tailed Tropicbird, the latter of which has occurred once already, following the passage of a hurricane.

There really is no way to predict what will happen. Chances are the winds produced by this storm will not be strong enough to displace many birds, but if the track was right they could coerce some birds closer to Newfoundland, that then may find their way into feeding flocks and tern colonies.

I will be sure to update the progress and track of this storm and the potential it may have for birding next week.!

If you have an interest in how weather influences birds, migration, vagrancy etc and would like to learn more, I am offering a thorough discussion of the topic. This will likely be offered as an online webinar via facebook. More details about that can be found here!

Comparing Two "Events"

Well,not surprisingly Hurricane Maria was a bust for pelagic birds. The storm was not set up properly and the tremendous speed with which it spun through Newfoundland made for less then ideal circumstances for sending hurricane waifs to our shores. Although the center of the hurricane passed over the Avalon Peninsula the storm was partially torn apart by strong wind shear from days previous. It became warped further as it entered the cold waters surrounding Newfoundland. This meant that most of the storms force lay in the NE quadrant, which passed east of Newfoundland. Maria produced peak gusts at Cape Race of 108 km/hr. For those of you who know of and have birded Cape Race,this equates to just another windy day at the Cape.

In analyzing this storm during its approach I quickly became more exited by the low pressure system that was moving up the eastern seaboard (responsible for directing Maria towards NL, away from the Eastern Seaboard). In years past fast moving lows (that coincide with offshore tropical systems) that sweep up the eastern seaboard, or move in from the Great Lakes have produced large arrivals of passerines.It was my hope that the same thing might occur when I started looking at the weather maps for Thursday September 15th and Friday September 16th.

In the following paragraphs I'll compare Maria and her associated low with Tropical Storm Chantelle of September 2007 and a low pressure system that swallowed it up and passed over Newfoundland. There are some interesting similarities and differences in the two storms, but as we'll see both looked very similar on weather maps and both produced a fallout of passerines on the eastern Avalon Peninsula, namely on Bear Cove Pt Rd.

Geography

Bear Cove Pt Rd is located within the town of Renews about half way down the eastern shore of the Avalon Peninsula. There are two factors which I believe make this road an excellent migrant trap.

1) position- the end of the road is located at a headland which juts out from the coast,perhaps improving this location as landfall point. As well, there is a lighthouse at the point, which might serve as a beacon for wayward birds traveling in the dark. Light beams from lighthouses have long been thought to attract birds.

2) habitat- much of the coastline of the Avalon Peninsula is dominated by barrens and stunted conifers. This is not exactly th preferred habitat for Neotropical migrants. However,when these areas are disturbed by the building of roads there is often a flush of second growth that sprouts up along the roads. In many cases, in Newfoundland Alder bushes grow en mass along these coastal roads. Compared to the surrounding barrens and conifers these alders beds look like oasis' to weary migrating passerines.


zoomed out map showing the location of Bear Cove Pt in Newfoundland


Zoomed in map showing a more local view of Bear Cove Pt

So now that the location for the events has been explained, lets take a look at the weather that helped make it happen. On September 11 2007 there was a deep trough in the jet stream created by a deepening low pressure system over western Ontario. There are also two other low pressure systems located north of Hudson's Bay and Labrador.As you can see by looking at the weather map below there were winds blowing from the Great Lakes directly to Newfoundland. The following day the more northerly low pressure systems moved farther south creating a strong south westerly flow.On the third day Thursday,September 13th, this flow of air that had been SW of the Great Lakes on Tuesday,into Cape Cod and the Maritimes on Wednesday, was now flowing into Newfoundland. When looking at the weather maps pay special attention to the area where the isobars are tightly packed and notice how that tightly packed area moves west to east over the three days.

Fastforwarding 5 years we had a similar system (September 15-17) that brought a big influx of birds to the eastern Avalon Peninsula. Once again there was a deep trough in the jet stream caused by a low pressure system over Ontario and there was again corresponding low positioned to the north over Labrador and Northern Quebec. Looking at the weather map notice how tigtly packed the isobars are over the western Great Lakes, exactly as they were on September 14th, 2007. Once again, just as in 2007 the more northerly low advances south, this time combining with the low over the Great lakes to form a large, formidable low pressure system that was driving air from the southern Great Lakes towards Newfoundland.Between September 15th and 16th the winds whipped through Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritimes, just as they did from September 11th-13th of 2007. The winds made it to Newfoundland by Saturday, September 17th as strong Westerly and South westerlies. On the two days following the passage of the large numbers and a good diversity of passerines were found along Bear Cove Pt Rd.

It took each system three days to make it from the Great Lakes to Newfoundland and on the forth day a fallout of passerines was evident. Below I've paired the days 1,2 and 3 of the 2007 and the recent 2011 systems so you can see the similarities.

Add caption

September 11th 2007 September 15th 2011


September 12th 2007 September 16th 2011


September 13th 2007 September 17th 2011


Included below that is a chart that compares the warbler species found after the passge of each system.




There is more to birding then just learning how to identify birds. Gaining an understanding of how weather drive patterns of vagrancy give a birder a significant edge when deciding when and where to concentrate their efforts. Sure anyone can go out and stumble into a rarity but the informed birder know what to expect, where to expect it and knows how to identify it. Of course, it's far from a perfect science and there is still a lot of guess work involved but the more time we spend analyzing weather and then comparing it to bird movements in our area the better we get at predicting events such as those described above.

Katia Passes, Bring on Marie

Well Hurricane Katia passed by south eastern Newfoundland today without coming within 300 miles of the nearest land at Cape Race. Due to this storms track far from land and it missing us by such a large margin its not thought that we will get any hurricane waifs from the storm. Having said that I'm still prepared to be surprised by a southern Tern or White-tailed Tropicbird. I'll be birding the Cape Race area tomorrow, so we'll see what's around then.

So Katia was a bust, but no worries there is a new storm that looks like it has some potential according to the latest model readings. This is the 95L that I alluded to the my last posting. It's fluctuated between Hurricane Marie and Tropical Storm Marie over the last couple of days. The storm is having trouble maintaining spin and organization and may in fact fizzle out to almost nothing before it even gets to us. However, it will be entering the warmer waters off the south eastern US in the next couple days and it could very well intensify. If Marie can get her act together and become a real Hurricane the current tracks suggest that it could head straight for eastern Newfoundland. Again, its not thought to get that close to the eastern seaboard, so even if we do get hit, it might not bring a birds. We'll have to wait and see. Here are what the current models are suggesting.


This shows the potential tracks that TS/Hurricane Marie might take over the next week. Tracks this far out are inherrently wrought with error, but the fact that all the models are suggesting a very similar course makes it quite likely that the actual track will be very similar to what's pictured here

BIG YEAR UPDATE

Over the last couple of days I added three new birds to my year list and picked up a a bonus bird when I realized that somehow I had forgotten to tick Common Redpoll. The other birds added were Dunlin, GOLDEN-WINGED WARBLER and ORCHARD ORIOLE.

The latter two species are extremely rare in the province. There are maybe 6-8 records of Golden-winged and perhaps just a single good record of Orchard Oriole and this was the second to be well documented and photographed in the province. The situation with Orchard Oriole in Newfoundland is an odd one because it seems to be underrepresented. The species is recorded several times annually in both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, yes we have two records??!!The photos aren't among the best I've taken, but when your dealing with rarities documentation trumps aesthetics.






With the addition of the above mentioned species my current year total sits at 246. This is just one species short of the single year Newfoundland list record. My original goal of 260 species is well within reach. If I really go hard and we have an influx of good birds 270 might not be totally out of the question, although that's an almost unimaginable number. In fact, 247 was thought to be unbeatable and 260 was thought to be somewhat outlandish, so who knows!

I'm still working on the Common Ringed Plover piece. I need to dedicate a couple of hours to get it clued up. Look for it in the very near future.

Keeping an Eye on Katia and Revisiting Some Old Storms

It's been several months since I last updated this blog. I apologize to my regular readers for the lack of new content. I've gotten inordinately busy with work and life in general. But now that I'm back there are a couple of things I want to talk about.

My Newfoundland big year continues to chug along. It has been a great year for rarities and I've accumulated a list of 238 species seen to date. This currently sits just 9 species short of the Newfoundland year list record. If there are even a few gettable rarities this fall I will likely have a shot at my goal of 260. In my next post I'll do a bit of a recap of my year so far and will include photos and discussion of some of the rarities.

As well,we are in the middle of the Atlantic hurricane season. It has been the second most active season on record and promises to continue to be exciting in the next couple of months. This is not a topic I take lightly. Hurricanes cause enormous damage and disrupt bird populations. However, for birders they can be very exciting because they have the potential to displace birds over vast distances. These storms have been happening since time immemorial and will continue to occur. They will continue to displace birds. If the birds are coming anyway, we might as well enjoy them.

It has been a long time since Newfoundland has seen a hurricane borne fallout of birds. Well, that's not entirely true. In late October of 2005 the remnants of Hurricane Wilma combined with the passage of a strong low pressure system and rained Chimney Swifts, Swallows, Terns and Yellow-billed Cuckoos all over Atlantic Canada. It was perhaps the single largest displacement of hurricane driven birds ever!! Unfortunately, we blew it big time!!! Newfoundland birders failed to organize and there was no concerted effort to look for storm driven strays beyond the Avalon Peninsula. There were a bunch of good birds found on the eastern edge of the Avalon including hundred of Chimney Swifts ( rare in Newfoundland),Gull-billed Tern, Sandwich Tern and a likely Royal tern that slipped through my fingers tips before I clinch the id!



A number of factors combined to make this an extraordinary event. First of all the storm formed very quickly and intensified to one of the strongest hurricanes on record. I believe it had the lowest central pressure of any hurricane ever! It formed during a time (mid October) and in an area (Gulf of Mexico)where huge numbers of birds were migrating at the time. Even though the storm fizzled out and never officially made land fall in Newfoundland it combined with an intense low pressure system that allowed it to entrain birds until they finally escaped near the coast of Atlantic Canada.

To give you an idea of the significance of the movement of Chimney Swifts. Prior to Wilma I had seen 8 Chimney Swifts in Newfoundland in 10 years. On a singe day after Wilma, I saw over 150! Anyway, enough talk of that. I've been trying to suppress the memories of how bad we ( birders) botched this storm.

So moving on. Aside from Wilma you have to go back 53 years to September of 1958, when Hurricane Helene rained storm driven strays all over Western Newfoundland.The most notable species involved in this event were Laughing Gulls ( many hundreds) and Black Skimmers ( 10's). I don't think we have any records of Black Skimmer since.



This exactly the type of hurricane we need to bring in exotic terns and seabirds. Most important is the storms track over Tern rich Cape Hatteras, the speed at which the storm was moving. Couple this with the fact that the storm managed to miss the rest of the eastern seaboard and hit Burgeo, Newfoundland directly as a H1 hurricane. It was the perfect storm for a wreck of exotic sea birds!!




A photo the day after the passage on Hurricane Helene. Taken from Burgeo Sept 29th 1958. This photo was borrowed from a great paper written by legendary Newfoundland Ornithologist, Les Tuck. it can be viewed here in its entirety. (http://elibrary.unm.edu/sora/JFO/v039n03/p0200-p0208.pdf)


Since 1958 we have had a few other storms that have gotten us excited, but none have produced a significant fall out of hurricane birds. When we do get direct or near direct hits from Hurricanes they are often storms that have been well out to sea for the duration of their existence, never getting close enough to the Tern rich areas from Florida to Cape Cod. These storms often form near the Cape Verde Islands in Africa, then track west, north of the Lesser Antilles. They then start to intensify into hurricanes as they enter the warmer water, but often encounter strong steering currents from low pressure systems sweeping out from the eastern US. This results in the storms re curving away from the US coast and towards Bermuda,sometimes tracking on to hit Newfoundland, but more often missing us entirely.

Its still worth birding these storms however,since they have brought us a few good birds. We have had a couple of Least Terns and a White-tailed Tropicbird that have been found after the passage of such storms. Other highly pelagic species such as Sooty and Bridled Tern may also be possible after such storms. Below are some examples of such storms from the last few years.


Hurricane Florence of 2006,classic Cape Verde storm that re curved around Bermuda and was extra-tropical when it passed off the Avalon Peninsula on September 12th. A Least Tern and a dead White-tailed Tropicbird were found after this storm.


This much anticipated late August storm failed to produce anything too exotic, but we did find a rare Least Tern at Grand Bank, Burin Peninsula and there was a noticeable influx of shorebirds into the area.


This utterly useless storm powered in to the Avalon Peninsula on the morning of September 21st. It's winds(that peaked at 173 km/hr) left a path of destruction in its wake and failed to bring a single vagrant sea bird. This is exactly the kind of storm we don't want. If we're going to get battered we should at least get a few avian rewards as compensation!

So all of the above is an incredibly long-winded way of saying I get excited about hurricanes and the exciting birding possibilities they create. All of this rambling is made more relevant by the fact that as I type this Cat 1 Hurricane Katia is spinning its way west, currently lying about 600 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles. Like other storms and some of the examples above Katia is predicted to intensify as it passes the Caribbean and then re curve in a North Easterly direction around Bermuda towards Newfoundland.

I've been following this storm since its genesis off the west coast of Africa and as of now the various computer models are having a difficult time predicting the track that Katia will take. Its not thought that the storm will hit either the Eastern US or Bermuda, but rather pass somewhere between the two. After that its any ones guess,since predictions of hurricane tracks greater than 5 days out are wrought with error. Well known Hurricane guru Dr. Jeff Masters in his latestBLOG entry said " It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially re curve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S."

If Katia should track more to the west and pass within a 100 miles or so of the eastern US then re curve towards Newfoundland (giving a track similar to Helene in 1958) we could experience some exciting birding. Storms that stay far out to sea have limited possibilities like Tropicbirds and maybe Sooty and Bridled Terns. When a storm gets close to the US coast a host of new possibilities come into play such as Brown Pelican, Sandwich Tern, Royal Tern, Forster's Tern, Least Tern and others!However, this is a big if! The extended forecast models have been flip flopping over the last few days showing Katia making landfall in Newfoundland as far west as Burgeo and currently show it passing about 100 miles east of Newfoundland.


This is the ensemble model forecast. It basically shows a bunch of possible tracks resulting from various environmental factors, then shows a track median ( the white line). Note that several of these tracks would be very favorable for bringing exotic southern strays to Newfoundland.



Shown here is the storm pulse track which currently shows the storm passing east of the Avalon Peninsula. It is way too early to make an accurate prediction about how close the storm will come to Newfoundland, or how intense it will be when/if it does make it here. Note that several of the models have the storm tracking ina slightly more westerly direction. Shift the median track 200- 300 miles miles to the east and Christmas will be coming early for Newfoundland birders around September 12th!!


So of course, all of this is nothing more than idle speculation, which is half then fun in birding. It's probably half the skill as well. Knowing what to expect, knowing what the possibilities are and where to look for them. Many times the identification is the easy part. The tough part is putting yourself in the right place at the right time and that's something you can't learn from a field guide.

I look forward to following this storm on my blog and updating everyone on my big year exploits. Sorry for the long absence, I'll try to keep the ball rolling with more regular posts this time!

A Southern Blast- Weather and Birds/

It's 6:30 am as I wrote this. I have just gotten in from a quick trip outside and man is it windy. Not only is it windy, it's damp and humid. It kind of feels like one of those early mornings we get in early September, when under the influence of a low pressure systems that was spawned in the Caribbean. I'm as usually borderline obsessive with my checking of approaching weather systems but somehow I had failed to even notice this one. SO the first thing I did when cam in was take look at the current forecast and the weather maps. According to The Weather Network it is currently 6C, rising to 11 by afternoon, with current winds gusting to 76km/hr from the SW. All of that looks like this on a weather map.



There are two things to notice about the above chart. First look how tight the isobars are packed around Newfoundland, this indicates that the winds will be rather intense. Secondly, note the origin of these isobars. They reach all the way to South Carolina and even Florida.

Another important point is where is the system itself originated. This system is actually a combination of a series of low pressure system's that only a day ago stretched from Texas to southern Ontario. This is the same system that brought strong wind, severe thunder storms and even a couple of Tornado warnings to Ontario. Here is the weather map from about 24 hours ago.



Note the line of low pressure stretching from Mexico to southern Ontario, with a low centered in Ontario. I wonder what if anything was dropped there after this storm?

Anyway, you can analyze weather maps until you are blue inteh face, but how does all this relate to birding? Well in order to answer that question a little background knowledge is needed. We need to have an idea of what birds are possible and we get this information two ways, or I do at least. first I check the birding list servs for the eastern seaboard to see what's on the move. For example, yesterday I noted that there was a flock of almost 30 Snowy Egrets in New York, apparently a one day high for the particular location. A little farther to the north in New Brunswick I saw that 100+ Brown-headed Cowbirds were seen at a feeder on a offshore island. By researching what's happening to our south, we can then get an idea about what fast moving systems that sweep through these areas could bring our way.

After you know what might be on it's way it never hurts to look at historical data from your own region. I do this by doing searching through the nf.bird ( our local bird list serv) archives. Doing this will give you can idea of what has happened in the past at this time of year, allowing you to form a precedent and get a further idea of what might be possible.

So, now that I have an idea of what might be headed our way there is only one thing left to do- go find some birds! So, today and tomorrow I'll be out checking the various hot spots, fields, marshes and feeders and hopefully my research and preparation will pay off!

I'm back!...and Photos

Well, I bet you all thought I had disappeared again. I've actually been working kinda hard writing material for the blog, i just haven't been finishing anything. I've also been experimenting with taking video footage. Today I got some footage of the long staying Black-tailed Gull and even got it performing it's long call. This bird is really starting to look good now. It's now mainly white headed and now has a brilliant red orbital ring. The red on the bill tip even seems brighter. Not bad for a gull that was run over by a truck! Here's a photo of the BTGU calling to assert his dominance over the near by Ring-billed Gulls.

Black-tailed Gull calling

I'm hoping to add some video footage of this guy in a few days once I get that whole scene figured out ;/

While the BTGU is starting to brighten up some species such as Great Cormorant have been looking pretty snazzy for a while now. This species has managed to effectively elude my camera lens all winter until a couple days ago. I finally caught up to a nice alternate plumaged bird on the remains of a dilapidated wharf in the St.John's harbour. It was rewarding to finally get some good photo ops with these guys after chasing them around the harbour so much this winter but never connecting with them when there were in convenient locations.

Along with the Shags another photo nemesis bird fell this winter- Wood Duck. Too be specific female Wood Duck. While the male of this species tends to garner most of the attention I find myself considerably more enamoured with the female.It lacks the riot of colors of the male Wood Duck, but makes up for that with a more subtle, less flamboyant beauty. I find myself especially drawn to the ye low orbital ring. That could just be me though, I have a thing for orbital rings. I won't get into that too much though or I'll ruin a future post. Anyway, you can see what I mean...

Since I'm on the topic of birds making the switch from simple basic plumage to their more flash alternate dress, I would be inept if I failed to mention Black-headed Gull. About 75-100 BHGU's winter in St.John's each winter and every year local birders eagerly wait for them to acquire their black..eh hemm.. I mean brown heads. yea, Black-headed Gull is a bit of a misnomer. I guess they do look kinda black headed from a distance on an overcast day?? Anyway, I'll finish this quick post with a few BHGU's.





Looking ahead, I've got a number of things planned for future blog articles. I'm knee deep ina discussion about possible ways of separating nominate glaucoides Iceland Gulls from apparently <<< key word<<< pure, white winged Kumliens Gulls. I also eluded to a future post about orbital rings. However before all of that I'll have something to say about the weather and what we might have to look forward to.
Look at this weather map. This is happening right now...


Right now birds displaced from the southern US are probably arriving on Newfoundland shores... but I'll have more to say about that tomorrow.


Oh and I almost forgot..added three new year birds today. Northern Fulmar, Ruffed Grouse and Thick-billed Murre. None of these are surprises. What was a surprise was the Great Egret that was reported. I did refind this bird. Unfortunately it was face down and not at all alive! Too bad, I hate seeing this happen,but such are the perils of migration. After the above system passes, I'd expect more Egrets!