Monday, September 5, 2011

Katia Update and Looking Ahead

As promised here is an update on the track of Hurricane Katia. When I last posted a couple of days ago things were looking pretty exciting. The storm was forecast to track relatively close to the eastern seaboard then re curve to Newfoundland. Well, all of that has changed. Now it looks like Katia will come under the influence of a strong low pressure system ( remnants of TS Lee)which will steer it well off the coast of Newfoundland.


Note that all the models have Katia passing well east of Newfoundland. Good news for everyone but birders!

Having said that all is not lost. If the remnants of Lee remains relatively strong and sweeps up the coast combined with Katia, it could still bring us some stuff but will not have the potential to carry pelagic birds. If Katia gets within 200 miles of the eastern seaboard and then passes within 200 miles of Newfoundland it will still be worth looking for waifs that could have been carried in our general direction and then continued to our shores to rest.

Ok so it looks like Katia will be a bust but I'm an optimist. I'll just brush this let down aside and move on. While is this hugely disappointing my years of languishing as a Leafs and Cubs fan have taught me a thing or two about let downs and disappointment! So, just like there is always next season, there's always another storm. I guess its a toss as to what will happen first, a hurricane driven fallout of birds, a Toronto Maple Leahs Stanley Cup or a Cubs world series. Considering its been 54 years since our last hurricane fallout and 45 years since the Leafs last won the cup, it could be close! I won't even mention the Cubs!

Anyway, that next storm is on the horizon, well figuratively speaking. There is a system currently named 95L ( storms don't receive names until they reach tropical storm strength) that's developing off of Africa. This storm is already looking pretty organized with lots of heavy thunderstorms. Its in an area of extremely warm water and it looks to be destined to become a tropical storm and probably a hurricane. its' way too early to consider tracks but its forming south of where Katia formed,which will give it a better chance of getting close to the eastern seaboard. So I'll keep an eye on that one and update accordingly!


One can always hope!!


Look for something on Ringed Plover identification coming up. I found a juvenile Ringed Plover on the southern Avalon Peninsula two days ago. It's the 6th ( 3rd juvenile)I've found in Newfoundland and the 10th provincial record. As a juv its a bit tougher to id then an adult. I'll talk about some of the finer point of separating juvenile and Ringed and Semipalmated in the next update!

ps: the Ringed Plover was 239 on the year. This morning I added a Gnatcatcher for 240. That brings me within 8 birds of the Newfoundland big year record.

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