Speculations About Maria

Well it looks as though we are going to get hit by Tropical Storm/ Tropical Depression Maria. To be quite honest I'm not sure what to expect from this storm. The storm has never been that strong, with winds maxing out at Tropical Storm strength. It has lost many of its tropical characteristics, it does not have much in the way of surface rotation or spiral bands and it's not expected to intensify much, if at all, before it reaches us.

The storm has been out at sea the entire time only coming close to land near the Northern Antilles islands. Due to its pelagic nature its very unlikely that Maria will bring any land birds with it.However, it still might have the potential to carry a rare tern or two our way. It isn't the type of storm that will entraiin birds and drag them long distances, but it's moderately strong winds could certainly persuade some birds in our direction.

I'm still trying to develop a game plan for birding this storm. Right now it's expected that the storm will pass through eastern Newfoundland, somewhere near the Avalon Peninsula and the winds are forecast to be from the south. This isn't exactly the most productive direction to produce a movement of sea birds but southern facing points on the Avalon could be good, that is if it's not too foggy to see!

I'll probably try my luck at Cape Spear. This location is generally better in a N or NW wind, but I've seen some good sea bird movements on southerly winds here as well. If the winds get up to 60+km/hr sustained you can expect to see Storm Petrels and some other tubenoses going by.

If the storm tracks futher to the east and generates N or NE wrap around winds after it passes, then there could be a nice movement and birds like Leach's Storm Petrels and Jaegers will be pushed into Conception Bay. If this happens places like Kelligrews, Seal Cove and Holyrood will be worth checking.

The day after the storm passes it will be well worth checking all coves and beaches on the Avalon Peninsula for any tired storm birds. Possible species (no matter how unlikely) are Black Tern, Least Tern, Sooty Tern, Bridled Tern and Magnificent Frigatebird. Just look everywhere and at every tern. Photograph anything unfamiliar and get the word out if you think you have something unusual.

Good luck!!

Katia Update and Looking Ahead

As promised here is an update on the track of Hurricane Katia. When I last posted a couple of days ago things were looking pretty exciting. The storm was forecast to track relatively close to the eastern seaboard then re curve to Newfoundland. Well, all of that has changed. Now it looks like Katia will come under the influence of a strong low pressure system ( remnants of TS Lee)which will steer it well off the coast of Newfoundland.


Note that all the models have Katia passing well east of Newfoundland. Good news for everyone but birders!

Having said that all is not lost. If the remnants of Lee remains relatively strong and sweeps up the coast combined with Katia, it could still bring us some stuff but will not have the potential to carry pelagic birds. If Katia gets within 200 miles of the eastern seaboard and then passes within 200 miles of Newfoundland it will still be worth looking for waifs that could have been carried in our general direction and then continued to our shores to rest.

Ok so it looks like Katia will be a bust but I'm an optimist. I'll just brush this let down aside and move on. While is this hugely disappointing my years of languishing as a Leafs and Cubs fan have taught me a thing or two about let downs and disappointment! So, just like there is always next season, there's always another storm. I guess its a toss as to what will happen first, a hurricane driven fallout of birds, a Toronto Maple Leahs Stanley Cup or a Cubs world series. Considering its been 54 years since our last hurricane fallout and 45 years since the Leafs last won the cup, it could be close! I won't even mention the Cubs!

Anyway, that next storm is on the horizon, well figuratively speaking. There is a system currently named 95L ( storms don't receive names until they reach tropical storm strength) that's developing off of Africa. This storm is already looking pretty organized with lots of heavy thunderstorms. Its in an area of extremely warm water and it looks to be destined to become a tropical storm and probably a hurricane. its' way too early to consider tracks but its forming south of where Katia formed,which will give it a better chance of getting close to the eastern seaboard. So I'll keep an eye on that one and update accordingly!


One can always hope!!

Look for something on Ringed Plover identification coming up. I found a juvenile Ringed Plover on the southern Avalon Peninsula two days ago. It's the 6th ( 3rd juvenile)I've found in Newfoundland and the 10th provincial record. As a juv its a bit tougher to id then an adult. I'll talk about some of the finer point of separating juvenile and Ringed and Semipalmated in the next update!

ps: the Ringed Plover was 239 on the year. This morning I added a Gnatcatcher for 240. That brings me within 8 birds of the Newfoundland big year record.